As production from that region declined in 2016, refiners looked to Nigeria to pick up the slack. Thats good news for the Niger River Delta , which had a rough year, but the outlook for the countrys future exports isnt all rosy, with reports indicating that its losing export markets to the United States. Many analysts and traders dont find much to be confident about in the EIAs regular predictions, which are variable and sometimes pretty wide off the mark. The rise in imports, after years of stagnation or relative declines, reflect changes in refinery patterns and the drop in energy production for the year. That decline was due, in part, to the low price of oil that endured for most of 2016. Despite the expectation that coals share will go up in the coming years, the EIA still doesnt believe total coal production in 2018 (785.2 million short tons) will rival the level reached in 2015 (897 million short tons). The increase will likely be a short-term development. An increase in prices, which may be stronger than the EIA predicts, will spur additional growth in output in 2017-2020. The agency prediction that coal consumption will increase at the expense of natural gas seems hard to parse out, given the wide belief that the U.S. coal industry is in the midst of the long-term crisis. Its possible that natural gas production will increase and be fed into higher gas exports , with a number of new LNG export terminals scheduled to be constructed before 2020.
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